The Impact of Exchange Rate Uncertainty on Domestic Investment: Panel Evidence from Emerging Markets and Developing Economies

This study attempts to suggest empirical evidence about the impact of exchange rate uncertainty on the domestic investment for 25 emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) for the time line covering the years between 2004 and 2014. Exchange rate uncertainty is modeled by selecting one of the volatility models of GARCH(1, 1), EGARCH(1, 1), or GJR-GARCH(1, 1) for individual countries. The study aims to offer a broad point of view about the impact of exchange rate uncertainty on domestic investment through a feasible generalized least square panel data model by deeming the economic growth, real interest rate, and 2008/2009 global financial crisis (GFC). The empirical results show that the impact of exchange rate uncertainty on domestic investment for EMDEs is found to be positive and significant, which may indicate the existence of risk neutral or insensitive domestic investors to exchange rate uncertainty in these countries. On the other hand, the study also proves that the effect of economic growth is positive and significant on domestic investment, whereas the impact of GFC on domestic investment is negative and significant. However, the impact of real exchange rate on domestic investment is found to be negative but insignificant.