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Procjena fiskalnih multiplikatora u Hrvatskoj i stabilizacija javnih financija tijekom boravka u ERM II

In: Ekonomska politika u 2021. godini - Hrvatska poslije pandemije

Author

Listed:
  • Milan Deskar-Škrbić

    (Hrvatska narodna banka)

  • Ana Grdović Gnip

    (Fakulteta za matematiko, naravoslovje in informacijske tehnologije)

  • Darjan Milutinović

    (Hrvatska narodna banka)

Abstract

Ovaj rad donosi prvu procjenu dezagregiranih fiskalnih multiplikatora u Hrvatskoj te analizu učinaka fiskalne politike na širi skup makroekonomskih varijabli, čime se analiziraju transmisijski mehanizmi fiskalne politike. Metodološki okvir istraživanja temelji se na fiskalnim modelima strukturne vektorske autoregresije (SVAR) identificiranim Blanchard i Perotti (2002) pristupom. Kako bi se u obzir uzela činjenica da je Hrvatska malo otvoreno gospodarstvo, originalni model je proširen uključivanjem egzogene varijable inozemne potražnje (SVAR-X). Rezultati istraživanja pokazuju kako fiskalna politika može biti učinkovit instrument makroekonomske stabilizacije u Hrvatskoj te kako među različitim fiskalnim instrumentima postoje značajne razlike u veličini fiskalnih multiplikatora. S obzirom na pogoršanje javnih financija uslijed posljedica pandemije COVID-19, može se očekivati kako će fiskalna održivost biti od središnje važnosti nositeljima ekonomske politike u srednjem roku, tim više jer pripada kriterijima nominalne konvergencije za ulazak u euro područje. Rezultati ovog istraživanja mogu pomoći u razumijevanju makroekonomskih učinaka fiskalne politike za pojedine fiskalne instrumente tijekom boravka Hrvatske u ERM II.

Suggested Citation

  • Milan Deskar-Škrbić & Ana Grdović Gnip & Darjan Milutinović, 2020. "Procjena fiskalnih multiplikatora u Hrvatskoj i stabilizacija javnih financija tijekom boravka u ERM II," Tradicionalni skup Hrvatskog društva ekonomista u Opatiji - objavljena poglavlja, in: Josip Tica & Katarina Bačić (ed.), Ekonomska politika u 2021. godini - Hrvatska poslije pandemije, volume 28, chapter 3, pages 80-120, Hrvatsko društvo ekonomista (Croatian Society of Economists).
    • Handle: RePEc:hde:opchap:28-03
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; Hrvatska; ERM II; fiskalna konsolidacija; SVAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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