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International Trade in the Era of Neo-Globalization: Disintegration vs Digital Partnership

In: Current Problems of the World Economy and International Trade

Author

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  • Elena G. Popkova

Abstract

The paper aims to study the main trends in the development of international trade in the era of neo-globalization and make forecasting scenarios that reflect the prospects and strategies for building international economic (foreign trade) relations. The author uses trend analysis, regression analysis, and the Monte Carlo method. The author proves that the digital economy determines the prospects for international trade in the era of neo-globalization. The author indicates several trends of international trade in the era of neo-globalization, such as the increase in the freedom of international trade (by 2.16%), the increasing level of globalization of the economy (by 4.11%), and the intensive increase in high-tech exports (by 74.94%). The most possible (28%) scenario for developing international trade is related to the digital partnership. In this scenario, a 25.11% increase in digital competitiveness provides an 8.29% increase in the globalization index and a 21.78% increase in high-tech exports. These indicators are achieved despite the growth of customs barriers by 58.86%. That is, a feature of the era of neo-globalization is the predominance of technological barriers over custom ones to the development of international trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Elena G. Popkova, 2022. "International Trade in the Era of Neo-Globalization: Disintegration vs Digital Partnership," Research in Economic Anthropology, in: Current Problems of the World Economy and International Trade, volume 42, pages 7-13, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    • Handle: RePEc:eme:reanzz:s0190-128120220000042001
    DOI: 10.1108/S0190-128120220000042001
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    International trade; neo-globalization; global economy; disintegration; digital partnership; high-tech export; F01; F13; F14; F17; F62; F63; O31; O32; O33; O38;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F01 - International Economics - - General - - - Global Outlook
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts
    • F63 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Economic Development
    • O31 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives
    • O32 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Management of Technological Innovation and R&D
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • O38 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Government Policy

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