The World Trading System: In the Fog of Uncertainty

This paper explores how European leadership in post-war international trade negotiations has both produced and attempted to respond to systemic conditions of uncertainty. Ostry argues that the initial pre-eminence of Europe, along with the U.S., in these negotiations stimulated unforeseen responses that now challenge the ability of Europe to retain its dominant position. European leadership inadvertently contributed to mobilizing interest groups focusing on the “new issues” of trade in services, intellectual property and investment; coalitions of developing world countries; and new advocacy NGOs (non-governmental organizations), all of which seek to recast global trade policy along lines initially neither envisioned nor necessarily desired by European negotiators.