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An Intertemporal Model of Rational Criminal Choice

In: Panel Data Econometrics Theoretical Contributions and Empirical Applications

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  • Robin C. Sickles
  • Jenny Williams

Abstract

This research presents a dynamic model of crime in which agents anticipate future consequences of their actions. Current period decisions affect future outcomes by a process of capital accumulation. While investigating the role of human capital, the focus of our study is on a form of capital that has received somewhat less attention in the literature, social capital. Social capital is an index of one's 'stock' in society. Introduction of social capital into the utility function results in an intertemporally nonseparable preference structure which admits state dependence in the decision to participate in crime. Our model is empirically implemented using panel data on a sample from the 1958 Philadelphia Birth Cohort Study. In estimation, we take account of unobserved choices in states not realized, which potentially depend on individual specific heterogeneity, by using simulation techniques. Our results provide evidence of state dependence in the decision to participate in crime. We also find that the initial level of social capital stock is important in determining the pattern of criminal involvement in adulthood.
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Suggested Citation

  • Robin C. Sickles & Jenny Williams, 2006. "An Intertemporal Model of Rational Criminal Choice," Contributions to Economic Analysis, in: Panel Data Econometrics Theoretical Contributions and Empirical Applications, pages 135-165, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    • Handle: RePEc:eme:ceazzz:s0573-8555(06)74006-8
    DOI: 10.1016/S0573-8555(06)74006-8
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    Cited by:

    1. Guyonne Kalb & Jenny Williams, 2002. "Industrial Relations Reform and Business Performance: An Introduction," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2002n04, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    2. Sickles, Robin C. & Williams, Jenny, 2008. "Turning from crime: A dynamic perspective," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 145(1-2), pages 158-173, July.
    3. Entorf Horst, 2009. "Crime and the Labour Market: Evidence from a Survey of Inmates," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 229(2-3), pages 254-269, April.
    4. Susumu Imai & Kala Krishna, 2001. "Employment, Dynamic Deterrence and Crime," NBER Working Papers 8281, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • A13 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - Relation of Economics to Social Values
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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