Starting FROM the Backhaul: Evaluating the Effects of COVID-19 on Airline Traffic Flows

Societal response to COVID induced many changes in the way we now live. Air transportation was one of the more visible “victims” of COVID response, with several major airlines declaring bankruptcy and others downsizing to a degree not seen previously. In spite of these shocks, the international air cargo sector carried on. Anecdotal evidence suggests airlines that either specialized in cargo or in turn were able to adjust their fleets to carry more cargo (including better utilization of existing backhauls) were best able to weather the pandemic. To explore this issue further, we examine detailed international air passenger and cargo traffic data (both fronthaul and backhaul) from the US Bureau of Transportation Statistic's TranStats database before and during COVID to elucidate how the pandemic affected air carrier operations at a time of great uncertainty. Better operational flexibility seems to have been critical to success during COVID. To this end, we find that many Asian-based carriers were superior at adjusting to the new cargo refocused reality of COVID operations, while their US-based counterparts lagged substantially behind. We speculate on potential reasons for this difference and also what our findings might mean for industry investment moving forward.