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A Multivariate Spatial Analysis for Anticipating New Firm Counts

In: Spatial Econometrics: Qualitative and Limited Dependent Variables

Author

Listed:
  • Yiyi Wang
  • Kara M. Kockelman
  • Paul Damien

Abstract

This paper analyzes county-level firm births across the United States using a spatial count model that permits spatial dependence, cross-correlation among different industry types, and over-dispersion commonly found in empirical count data. Results confirm the presence of spatial autocorrelation (which can arise from agglomeration effects and missing variables), industry-specific over-dispersion, and positive, significant cross-correlations. After controlling for existing-firm counts in 2008 (as an exposure term), parameter estimates and inference suggest that a younger work force and/or clientele (as quantified using each county’s median-age values) is associated with more firm births (in 2009). Higher population densities is associated with more new basic-sector firms, while reducing retail-firm starts. The modeling framework demonstrated here can be adopted for a variety of settings, harnessing very local, detailed data to evaluate the effectiveness of investments and policies, in terms of generating business establishments and promoting economic gains.

Suggested Citation

  • Yiyi Wang & Kara M. Kockelman & Paul Damien, 2016. "A Multivariate Spatial Analysis for Anticipating New Firm Counts," Advances in Econometrics, in: Spatial Econometrics: Qualitative and Limited Dependent Variables, volume 37, pages 167-193, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    • Handle: RePEc:eme:aecozz:s0731-905320160000037014
    DOI: 10.1108/S0731-905320160000037014
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Firm birth; spatial count model; multivariate response; conditional autoregressive; M13; C11; C30; C35;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • M13 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Administration - - - New Firms; Startups
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General
    • C35 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions

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