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Modelling Financial Markets Comovements during Crises: A Dynamic Multi-Factor Approach

In: Dynamic Factor Models

Author

Listed:
  • Martin Belvisi
  • Riccardo Pianeti
  • Giovanni Urga

Abstract

We propose a novel dynamic factor model to characterise comovements between returns on securities from different asset classes from different countries. We apply a global-class-country latent factor model and allow time-varying loadings. We are able to separate contagion (asset exposure driven) and excess interdependence (factor volatility driven). Using data from 1999 to 2012, we find evidence of contagion from the US stock market during the 2007–2009 financial crisis, and of excess interdependence during the European debt crisis from May 2010 onwards. Neither contagion nor excess interdependence is found when the average measure of model implied comovements is used.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Belvisi & Riccardo Pianeti & Giovanni Urga, 2016. "Modelling Financial Markets Comovements during Crises: A Dynamic Multi-Factor Approach," Advances in Econometrics, in: Dynamic Factor Models, volume 35, pages 317-360, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    • Handle: RePEc:eme:aecozz:s0731-905320150000035008
    DOI: 10.1108/S0731-905320150000035008
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Riccardo Borghi & Eric Hillebrand & Jakob Mikkelsen & Giovanni Urga, 2018. "The dynamics of factor loadings in the cross-section of returns," CREATES Research Papers 2018-38, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    2. Carlos Correa & David Alarcón & Ignacio Cepeda, 2021. "“I am Delighted!”: The Effect of Perceived Customer Value on Repurchase and Advocacy Intention in B2B Express Delivery Services," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-19, May.
    3. Javier Maldonado & Esther Ruiz, 2021. "Accurate Confidence Regions for Principal Components Factors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(6), pages 1432-1453, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dynamic factor models; comovements; contagion; Kalman filter; autometrics; C3; C5; G1;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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