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Factor Selection in Dynamic Hedge Fund Replication Models: A Bayesian Approach

In: Bayesian Model Comparison

Author

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  • Guillaume Weisang

Abstract

In this paper, I propose an algorithm combining adaptive sampling and Reversible Jump MCMC to deal with the problem of variable selection in time-varying linear model. These types of model arise naturally in financial application as illustrated by a motivational example. The methodology proposed here, dubbed adaptive reversible jump variable selection, differs from typical approaches by avoiding estimation of the factors and the difficulties stemming from the presence of the documented single factor bias. Illustrated by several simulated examples, the algorithm is shown to select the appropriate variables among a large set of candidates.

Suggested Citation

  • Guillaume Weisang, 2014. "Factor Selection in Dynamic Hedge Fund Replication Models: A Bayesian Approach," Advances in Econometrics, in: Bayesian Model Comparison, volume 34, pages 181-222, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
  • Handle: RePEc:eme:aecozz:s0731-905320140000034009
    DOI: 10.1108/S0731-905320140000034009
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Tracking problem; hedge fund replication; alternative beta; Kalman filter; factor selection; model selection; C1; C11; C32; C52; G11;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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