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Sectoral Effects of Aggregate Shocks

In: 30th Anniversary Edition

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  • Nathan S. Balke

Abstract

In this chapter, using a combination of long-run and sign restrictions to identify aggregate monetary and productivity factors, I find that the monetary factor is responsible for long swings in nominal variables but has little effect on fluctuations in output, real wage, or labor input growth. The productivity factor in addition to increasing output growth and real wage growth in the short and long run, also results in increases in labor input and decreases in prices, but the quantitative effect of the productivity factor on labor input is relatively small. These results are robust to the number of factors included in the model and to alternative priors about the short-run effects of the monetary factor, and to the inclusion of oil prices. Oil prices, in fact, appear to be largely driven by the other aggregate factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Nathan S. Balke, 2012. "Sectoral Effects of Aggregate Shocks," Advances in Econometrics, in: 30th Anniversary Edition, pages 299-357, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    • Handle: RePEc:eme:aecozz:s0731-9053(2012)0000030015
    DOI: 10.1108/S0731-9053(2012)0000030015
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