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Tests Of Common Deterministic Trend Slopes Applied To Quarterly Global Temperature Data

In: Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Misspecified Models: Twenty Years Later

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  • Thomas B. Fomby
  • Timothy J. Vogelsang

Abstract

We examine the global warming temperature data sets of Jones et al. (1999) and Vinnikov et al. (1994) in the context of the multivariate deterministic trend-testing framework of Franses and Vogelsang (2002). We find that, across all seasons, global warming seems to be present for the globe and for the northern and southern hemispheres. Globally and within hemispheres, it appears that seasons are not warming equally fast. In particular, winters appear to be warming faster than summers. Across hemispheres, it appears that the winters in the northern and southern hemispheres are warming equally fast whereas the remaining seasons appear to have unequal warming rates. The results obtained here seem to coincide with the findings of Kaufmann and Stern (2002) who use cointegration analysis and find that the hemispheres are warming at different rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas B. Fomby & Timothy J. Vogelsang, 2003. "Tests Of Common Deterministic Trend Slopes Applied To Quarterly Global Temperature Data," Advances in Econometrics, in: Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Misspecified Models: Twenty Years Later, pages 29-43, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    • Handle: RePEc:eme:aecozz:s0731-9053(03)17002-8
    DOI: 10.1016/S0731-9053(03)17002-8
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    Cited by:

    1. Xu, Ke-Li, 2012. "Robustifying multivariate trend tests to nonstationary volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 169(2), pages 147-154.
    2. Yonghui Zhang & Liangjun Su & Peter C. B. Phillips, 2012. "Testing for common trends in semi‐parametric panel data models with fixed effects," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 15(1), pages 56-100, February.

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