IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/h/eme/aaeczz/s1529-213420160000020005.html
   My bibliography  Save this book chapter

On the Empirical Relevance of the Mises–Hayek Theory of the Trade Cycle

In: Studies in Austrian Macroeconomics

Author

Listed:
  • William J. Luther
  • Mark Cohen

Abstract

Lester and Wolff (2013) find little empirical support for the Austrian business cycle theory. According to their analysis, an unexpected monetary shock does not alter the structure of production in a way consistent with the Austrian view. Rather than increasing production in early and late stages relative to middle stages, they find the opposite – a positive monetary shock typically decreases production in early and late stages relative to middle stages. We argue that the measures of production and prices employed by Lester and Wolff (2013) are constructed in such a way that makes them inappropriate for assessing the empirical relevance of the Austrian business cycle theory’s unique features. After describing how these measures are constructed and why using ratios of stages is problematic, we use a structural vector autoregression to consider the effects of a monetary shock on each stage of the production process. We show that, with a clearer understanding of what is actually being measured by the stage of process data, the results are consistent with (but not exclusive to) the Austrian view.

Suggested Citation

  • William J. Luther & Mark Cohen, 2016. "On the Empirical Relevance of the Mises–Hayek Theory of the Trade Cycle," Advances in Austrian Economics, in: Studies in Austrian Macroeconomics, volume 20, pages 79-103, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    • Handle: RePEc:eme:aaeczz:s1529-213420160000020005
    DOI: 10.1108/S1529-213420160000020005
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/S1529-213420160000020005/full/html?utm_source=repec&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=repec
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/S1529-213420160000020005/full/epub?utm_source=repec&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=repec&title=10.1108/S1529-213420160000020005
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/S1529-213420160000020005/full/pdf?utm_source=repec&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=repec
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1108/S1529-213420160000020005?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert Lester & Jonathan Wolff, 2013. "The empirical relevance of the Mises-Hayek theory of the trade cycle," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 26(4), pages 433-461, December.
    2. Hayek, F. A., 2012. "Hayek on Hayek," University of Chicago Press Economics Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226321202 edited by Kresge, Stephen & Wenar, Leif, December.
    3. Roger Koppl & William Luther, 2012. "Hayek, Keynes, and modern macroeconomics," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 25(3), pages 223-241, September.
    4. N. Cachanosky & P. Lewin, 2014. "Roundaboutness is Not a Mysterious Concept: A Financial Application to Capital Theory," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(4), pages 648-665, October.
    5. Young, Andrew T., 2005. "Reallocating labor to initiate changes in capital structures: Hayek revisited," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 89(3), pages 275-282, December.
    6. Nicolas Cachanosky, 2015. "Expectation in Austrian business cycle theory: Market share matters," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 28(2), pages 151-165, June.
    7. Nicolas Cachanosky, 2014. "The Mises-Hayek business cycle theory, fiat currencies and open economies," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 27(3), pages 281-299, September.
    8. Anthony Carilli & Gregory Dempster, 2008. "Is the Austrian business cycle theory still relevant?," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 21(4), pages 271-281, December.
    9. Boettke, Peter J. & Coyne, Christopher J. & Leeson, Peter T., 2013. "Comparative historical political economy," Journal of Institutional Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(3), pages 285-301, September.
    10. Francis Bismans & Christelle Mougeot, 2009. "Austrian business cycle theory: Empirical evidence," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 22(3), pages 241-257, September.
    11. Selgin, George & Beckworth, David & Bahadir, Berrak, 2015. "The productivity gap: Monetary policy, the subprime boom, and the post-2001 productivity surge," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 189-207.
    12. William Luther & Mark Cohen, 2014. "An Empirical Analysis of the Austrian Business Cycle Theory," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 42(2), pages 153-169, June.
    13. Mulligan, Robert F., 2010. "A fractal comparison of real and Austrian business cycle models," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(11), pages 2244-2267.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cameron Harwick, 2022. "Unmixing the metaphors of Austrian capital theory," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 35(2), pages 163-176, June.
    2. William J. Luther & J. P. McElyea, 2018. "Austrian Macroeconomics in Search of Its Uniqueness," Journal of Private Enterprise, The Association of Private Enterprise Education, vol. 33(Summer 20), pages 1-20.
    3. William J. Luther, 2021. "Two paths forward for Austrian macroeconomics," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 34(2), pages 289-297, June.
    4. Cameron Harwick, 2019. "Bubbles and Broad Monetary Aggregates: Toward a Consensus Approach to Business Cycles," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 45(2), pages 250-268, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nicolás Cachanosky & Alexander W. Salter, 2017. "The view from Vienna: An analysis of the renewed interest in the Mises-Hayek theory of the business cycle," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 30(2), pages 169-192, June.
    2. Nicolás Cachanosky & Peter Lewin, 2016. "Financial Foundations of Austrian Business Cycle Theory," Advances in Austrian Economics, in: Studies in Austrian Macroeconomics, volume 20, pages 15-44, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    3. William Luther & Mark Cohen, 2014. "An Empirical Analysis of the Austrian Business Cycle Theory," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 42(2), pages 153-169, June.
    4. William J. Luther, 2021. "Two paths forward for Austrian macroeconomics," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 34(2), pages 289-297, June.
    5. Simon Bilo, 2021. "Hayek’s Theory of Business Cycles: A Theory That Will Remain Obscure?," Journal of Private Enterprise, The Association of Private Enterprise Education, vol. 36(Fall 2021), pages 27-47.
    6. Cachanosky, Nicolás & Lewin, Peter, 2016. "An empirical application of the EVA® framework to business cycles," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 60-67.
    7. Alonso-Neira, Miguel A. & Sánchez-Bayón, Antonio & Castro-Oliva, Marcos, 2023. "Teoría austriaca del ciclo económico aplicada al caso español: del inicio del euro a la gran recesión y su recuperación [Austrian economic cycle theory applied to the Spanish case: from the begging," Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa = Journal of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, vol. 35(1), pages 280-310, June.
    8. Adrián O. Ravier & Nicolás Cachanosky, 2015. "Fiscal Policy in Capital-Based Macroeconomics with Idle Resources," Journal of Private Enterprise, The Association of Private Enterprise Education, vol. 30(Winter 20), pages 81-95.
    9. Bryan P. Cutsinger, 2021. "Forced savings and political malinvestment: an application of steve horwitz’s microfoundations and macroeconomics," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 34(2), pages 311-322, June.
    10. Peter Lewin & Nicolás Cachanosky, 2018. "Value and capital: Austrian capital theory, retrospect and Prospect," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 31(1), pages 1-26, March.
    11. Alexander W. Salter & William J. Luther, 2016. "The Optimal Austrian Business Cycle Theory," Advances in Austrian Economics, in: Studies in Austrian Macroeconomics, volume 20, pages 45-60, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    12. William J. Luther & J. P. McElyea, 2018. "Austrian Macroeconomics in Search of Its Uniqueness," Journal of Private Enterprise, The Association of Private Enterprise Education, vol. 33(Summer 20), pages 1-20.
    13. Andrzej Jędruchniewicz & Dawid Bródka, 2020. "Wahania cen w Polsce w świetle teorii szkoły austriackiej," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 51(6), pages 639-660.
    14. Martin Komrska, 2015. "Rakouská teorie hospodářského cyklu: VAR analýza pro USA v letech 1978-2013 [The Austrian Business Cycle Theory: VAR Analysis for USA between 1978-2013]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2015(1), pages 57-73.
    15. Nicolas Cachanosky, 2015. "Expectation in Austrian business cycle theory: Market share matters," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 28(2), pages 151-165, June.
    16. Nicolás Cachanosky, 0. "Microfoundations and macroeconomics: 20 years," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 0, pages 1-10.
    17. Nicolás Cachanosky, 2021. "Microfoundations and macroeconomics: 20 years," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 34(2), pages 279-288, June.
    18. Tito Belchior Silva Moreira & Benjamin Miranda Tabak & Mario Jorge Mendonça & Adolfo Sachsida, 2016. "An Evaluation of the Non-Neutrality of Money," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(3), pages 1-20, March.
    19. Miguel Ángel Alonso-Neira & Antonio Sánchez-Bayón, 2024. "Spanish Boom-bust Cycle Within the Euro Area: Credit Expansion, Malinvestments & Recession (2002-2014)," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2024(4), pages 597-625.
    20. Eduard Braun, 2020. "Capital as in capitalism, or capital as in capital goods, or both?," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 33(3), pages 383-395, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Austrian; business cycle; macroeconomic fluctuation; stage of process; structure of production; B53; E20; E22; E23; E32; E40;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B53 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Current Heterodox Approaches - - - Austrian
    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eme:aaeczz:s1529-213420160000020005. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Emerald Support (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.