Historical materialist policy analysis to study the state of climate adaptation policymaking in China

Given the multiplicity of interdependent crises, which impacts current and future vulnerability to climate change, climate adaptation as a policy field is increasingly expected to address systemic injustices. The demand is largely disconnected from political practice, that is signified by an absence of major policy change when it comes to addressing the root causes of people’s uneven vulnerability. With an above average warming and high levels of inequality, China is exemplary of these tensions. Incremental adaptation responses persist, and “vulnerable populations” are only sporadically engaged with. Therefore, the chapter aims to examine: (1) the evolution of climate change adaptation as an explicit policy field in China, and (2) the state of current adaptation efforts given the rising needs for transformative adaptation, i.e., making “vulnerable populations” a central concern of adaptation policymaking. Historical materialist policy analysis (HMPA) is the main methodological framework applied to make sense of governmental inertia. The findings reveal that public adaptation efforts have advanced significantly but that “vulnerable populations” continue to be a sidelined concern. Preliminary insights on conflicts, which structure the recent but maturing policy field in China, are provided. These conflicts unfold against larger political-economic context conditions of state-permeated capitalism which have new patterns of hierarchy and social stratification as core features. As long as the reproduction of inequality continues to be unchallenged, transformative adaptation is illusory.