As through a glass darkly: a complex systems approach to futures

Futures work too often ignores the value of a better understanding of the ‘thick present’ and its evolutionary possibilities, something this chapter seeks to correct. The underlying theory draws on complexity science, assemblage and constructor theories as well as distributed ethnography. A new set of methods, ‘Estuarine Mapping’ is outlined which allows the definition of the various fractal topographies and energy gradients of the present. In turn, this allows us to intervene to change the dispositional state of the system so it is easier to achieve a desired outcome. The chapter defines, and proposes a solution to, the problem of abduction in human decision-making. In trying to break an inability to see, pay attention to, and then act on weak signals the method seeks to plot a path to overcome a pattern of historical failure in futures work, despite accurate forecasts, scenarios and such like. The chapter builds on the 2021 joint publication of the Future Systems Directorate of the European Union and the Cynefin Centre: Managing complexity (and chaos) in times of crisis. A field guide for decision makers inspired by the Cynefin framework (EUFG)