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The benefits of negative thinking: strategic foresight in military planning

In: Handbook of Futures Studies

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  • Olaf Theiler

Abstract

Military planning has, throughout history, always been preoccupied with most accurate possible projections of future developments. Today, defence ministries around the world employ specialists to use methods of ‘strategic foresight’ to point to potential developments which should be factored into decisions involving long-term consequences. Strategic foresight is a process that attempts to add long-term overview and thinking in alternatives to strategic analysis, specifically relevant to short- or middle-term military planning and long-term capability development. Moreover, foresight helps identify implicit assumptions and make them explicit and thus testable for their validity before they affect policy making. A foresight approach may thus enhance a military organization’s ability to understand emerging risks and threats, but to also discern new chances and opportunities - often enough for military a question of live or death.

Suggested Citation

  • Olaf Theiler, 2024. "The benefits of negative thinking: strategic foresight in military planning," Chapters, in: Roberto Poli (ed.), Handbook of Futures Studies, chapter 29, pages 429-438, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    • Handle: RePEc:elg:eechap:21968_29
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    File URL: https://www.elgaronline.com/doi/10.4337/9781035301607.00037
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