Helping people think about the future: insights from cognitive science

Cognitive science has identified several models of mind and cognitive processes that underpin thinking and decision-making. Understanding and working with these processes will improve the efficacy of scanning, foresight, and vision-building. These cognitive devices include mental models (internalized system maps), mental simulations (for scenario development and testing), inference processes (that explore implications), and assumptions (that summarize and consolidate thinking). This chapter describes the cognitive science behind these processes and suggests how we might use them in foresight. Integrating an understanding of cognitive processes in foresight practice will change foresight methods. It also has implications for ownership, trust, participation, and the impact of foresight on decision-making and public policy. The observations and hypotheses grow out of my experience conducting hundreds of foresight projects involving several thousand people in a public policy context. While many of these insights are likely familiar to most futurists, they are rarely explicitly acknowledged or fully utilized.