State compliance with international law in intelligence matters: a behavioural approach

This chapter aims to identify the influence of international law on state behaviour in intelligence matters, using effective accountability as a proxy for international law’s potential to influence state behaviour. Through a behavioural analysis of state conduct in intelligence matters and the modelling of intelligence decision-making, I demonstrate that state behaviour in intelligence matters can be explained and predicted by the likelihood of effective accountability. I test this claim with a comparative case-study using France and the United States as most-similar cases. The case-study illustrates the functioning of the decision-making model and the decisive role of the likelihood of effective accountability in intelligence decision-making. The comparative analysis also highlights the importance of extra-legal factors and behavioural insights in understanding and explaining (non-)compliance. Finally, I identify compliance-enhancing paths and underline the necessity of a comprehensive model of regulation integrating legality, accountability, and compliance.