IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/h/elg/eechap/21196_3.html
   My bibliography  Save this book chapter

Pathogens and probabilities

In: Nudged into Lockdown?

Author

Listed:
  • .

Abstract

In this chapter, I explore the role of probabilities in understanding pandemic responses. I show that humans are not intuitive statisticians and therefore not very good in interpreting probabilities; this often leads us to overweight small probabilities and underweight large ones. I introduce readers to the concepts of base rates, expected values, expected utility and risk aversion. I also provide an overview of Prospect Theory and the idea of loss aversion. Loss aversion implies that humans are typically willing to accept larger expected losses in the future in order to avoid smaller but certain losses in the present. I discuss the implications of these findings for Covid-19 risk perceptions and policy responses.

Suggested Citation

  • ., 2022. "Pathogens and probabilities," Chapters, in: Nudged into Lockdown?, chapter 3, pages 54-83, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    • Handle: RePEc:elg:eechap:21196_3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.elgaronline.com/view/9781802205664.00008.xml
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:elg:eechap:21196_3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Darrel McCalla (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.e-elgar.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.