Conceptual framework for managing international crises, 1990-2020

Chapter 3 considers the theoretical and empirical developments in the manner with which great powers manage conflict, setting the scene for conceptualizing their approaches to gray zone conflict. The theoretical part of this chapter reviews seven key trends concerning the Western way of warfare. It starts with the liberal democratic peace idea at the end of the Cold War, and moves through the grappling with accurate depictions of the world as a uni-/bi-/multi-polar system and the ways of measuring power. The chapter considers the classic deterrence dilemmas, including the challenges of signaling, and traces the expanding notion of conflict. The theoretical section concludes with the discussion of challenges concerning the emergence of asymmetric conflict, cyber warfare, and the turn towards non-military tools of confrontation. The empirical part of this chapter discusses the adaptation of the great powers to this changing notion of conflict, with China and Russia drawing extensively on information and influence campaigns, and the U.S. grappling with defining the competitive space. It walks the reader through the challenges to the credibility and capability to deter adversaries in the gray zone, as well as the difficulties of operating in a space where ambiguity and other tactical decisions meant to avoid conventional warfare can sometimes inadvertently induce escalation.