Toolkit for planners and operators in gray zone crisis environments

Chapter 10 provides U.S. policy makers and planners data-informed and empirically tested tools and levers available for managing escalation and deterrence in modern conflict, with particular emphasis on tools and levers applicable to gray zone conflict. It also offers a new integrated conceptual framework that can be employed as a means to effectively manage low-level multi-party protracted confrontations in a way that maintains or improves U.S. strategic advantage relative to its competitors. These tools are used retrospectively to assess Russian, Ukrainian, U.S., and U.S. partner actions before and following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These tools and processes can be employed in educational and professional development settings to develop insights and experiential learning about gray zone competition and escalation management during crises that can be applied during real-world planning and strategy development.