Ambition-raising and ambition-reducing features of the Paris Agreement

The Paris Agreement contains provisions which can lead to both ambition-raising and ambition-reducing actions by countries. The Agreement imposes procedural obligations on individual states to submit Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). The nationally determined character of this arrangement has been critiqued, for, on their own, NDCs have not led to ambitious state mitigation action to date. Other provisions of the Paris Agreement, such as the Global Stocktake, Enhanced Transparency Framework, and the Article 6 trading mechanisms hold promise that they can lead to greater ambition by the parties. This chapter captures the current state of global emissions and explains the ambition gap based on the provisions of Article 4 of the Paris Agreement. The provisions of Article 4 were anticipated by many to be ambition-raising, but in the short term they have turned out to be ambition-reducing. This chapter then investigates the potential of other Paris Agreement features, which have yet to be fully implemented, and considers whether, in combination with Article 4, they can collectively raise the ambition of states.