Climate change and historical changes in rice yield in Thailand

Based on long-range data from 1951 to 2016 and time-series analysis, this chapter explores the link between climate change and historical changes in rice yield in Thailand. We find evidence of significant regional climate change in terms of increasing temperature normal and declining precipitation normal. The rise in temperature normal significantly depresses rice yield normal in wet and dry seasons but only in the Northeast. Nevertheless, in all regions, the fall in precipitation normal does not impact yield normal. Our results further imply two factors that help support long-run upward productivity trends. First, access to water input and management, captured by the expansion of irrigated area normal, is associated with the yield improvement in the Northeast. Second and more uniformly across regions, technological improvement, potentially in the form of adopting high yield varieties and changing crop establishment practices, is found to enhance long-term yields. Although these factors are not direct responses to climate change and cannot be solely classified as climate adaptation or mitigation, they help sustain and increase historical rice yield in Thailand even in the face of climate change.