Tropical cyclones in the small island developing nations in the world oceans: an economic analysis of the Green Climate Funds grant allocations

The Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) is a negotiating group comprised of small island and low-lying coastal states in the UN-led negotiations on climate change that are particularly vulnerable to climate change. We analyze the Green Climate Fund (GCF)'s funding to the Member States of the AOSIS with a focus on tropical cyclone projects. The funded projects are concerned with sea level rise, tropical cyclone damages, and recurrent urban floods. Cyclone strike impacts are severe because they are on average over 1,000 times larger than each of these island nations. It is claimed that the 2015 Cyclone Pam displaced 45% of the population in Tuvalu while the Cyclone Evan in 2012 destroyed 40 percent of Samoa's GDP. An evaluation of the GCF funding decisions is conducted on projects from several island nations to identify to what extent these projects align with GCF objectives. There are several observations pertinent to this analysis. While there is limited data to determine the frequency and intensity of future tropical cyclones for instance in the case of the South Pacific Ocean, cyclones nonetheless pose one of the biggest threats to small islands and low lying coastal states. Second, the GCF funding thus far allocated to projects addressing cyclones has been typically channeled to national governments. In general, moreover, most GCF projects are public sector driven. Third, there are a range of adaptation approaches to address threats such as cyclones and sea level rise which have varying degrees of effectiveness and practicality. Fourth, there is insufficient measures to assess whether government-initiated actions will be effective in catalysing adaptation amongst citizens, e.g., finding homes at relatively safer places or building them, without further attention to details. Finally, because the projects involving small island developing states are primarily oriented toward adaptation and building resilience, any mitigation potential based on current projects will be relatively neglible. As such, the success of the GCF funding will depend on the number of lives saved.