Rapid climate risk assessment methodology for hydropower projects: case studies

Due to substantial uncertainties in the presently available climate change projections, a Climate Risk Assessment (CRA) of hydropower projects must aim at assessing the potential hydro-meteorological impacts of a wide range of possible future climate conditions on inter alia water resources availability, hydro-energy generation potential and environmental flows, as well as its potential impacts on the economic and environmental performance of hydropower infrastructure. Chapter 11 elaborates rapid CRA methodologies for estimating the potential impacts of climate change on water resources and hydropower projects, in probabilistic terms of hydrological impacts, the related changes in water resources availability and the potential changes in project performance indicators, including economic indicators. Essentially, the methodology is based on the concept of climate elasticities of catchment runoff, translated into climate elasticities of water resources system performance and of the economic performance of water resources projects, through the use of readily available ensembles of climate change projections. This chapter illustrates the application of the described methodologies through three selected case studies, including: i) adaptation to climate change of Nepal's hydro-electricity sector; ii) the Upper Arun hydropower project in Nepal; and iii) Adaptation Pathways and Climate Risk Management Plan (CRMP).