Predicting the pace of the transition

In all likelihood, politicians will allow consumers to decide the rate of PEV penetration in the marketplace from 2021 to 2025. If PEV deployment does not proceed quickly enough, some politicians may be inclined to make the decision for consumers by banning, restricting or taxing heavily (like Norway) the use of conventional powertrains. In light of the differences in political culture around the world, it seems unlikely that US politicians will force a technology on consumers but Chinese politicians might behave differently. An exception may occur in California, where a progressive legislator has filed a bill to eliminate sales of new ICE vehicles, including HEVs, after January 1, 2044. In Europe, more countries could follow Norway’s lead and institute heavy taxes on gasoline and diesel models. The fact that a conservative UK government can propose a 2035 phase out of new gasoline models (including HEVs) is a signal that some Western politicians will insist on BEVs. If politicians discourage conventional powertrains without discouraging MHEVs and HEVS, then it is likely that much of the market will shift to MHEVs and HEVs unless PEVs are heavily subsidized. Thus, the pace of the transition to PEVs may be determined as much by politics as by markets.