Changing conditions, changing roles: ASEAN in Southeast Asia-China relations

Since ASEAN’s creation in 1967, ASEAN has been a constant but variable presence across six distinct periods of Southeast Asia-China relations during which both states and relations have experienced dramatic changes. This chapter highlights three contrasting and interacting institutional logics - geopolitical/strategic, regional order construction/maintenance, and demand-driven - that states have associated with ASEAN; however, which logic is most prominent has shifted with critical changes at domestic, regional, and global levels. This paper gives special attention to the sensitivity of Southeast Asia-China relations to US-associated changes, including the changing state of US-China relations, and how such changes differently structure and inform Southeast Asian states’ and China’s approaches to ASEAN. The trajectory of past relations suggests that ASEAN offers both Southeast Asian states and China mechanisms by which to navigate what may be the most challenging period of relations ahead given the deteriorating state of US-China relations, but that the success of such efforts depends on their respective domestic capacities to appreciate the vulnerabilities of their relations.