The economics and epidemiology of epidemics and pandemics

In December 2019, a cluster of pneumonia cases with unknown source were recorded in the city of Wuhan, China. These cases were reported to the WHO on 31 December 2019. The new virus was identified in January 2020, and on 11 January, Chinese state media reported the first known death from an illness caused by the virus, which had infected dozens of people. While the level of disease occurrence can be described in many ways, it is primarily defined by two measurable factors: (i) the pattern and speed by which a disease moves (the reproduction rate); and (ii) the size of the susceptible population (the critical community size). Pandemics lead to a significant increase in morbidity and mortality over a wide geographical area, in the process causing economic, social and political disruption. The adverse economic effects of pandemics are intertwined with their social and political effects. The evidence suggests that pandemics can have significant social and political consequences, creating clashes between states and citizens, eroding state capacity, driving population displacement, and heightening social tension and discrimination.