Outcome uncertainty fluctuation and match demand: a plea for a competitive intensity metrics

This chapter evidences the limitations of competitive balance as a metrics capturing outcome uncertainty fluctuation with a view to explaining match demand (Section 1), before developing the competitive intensity approach as a potentially valid alternative (Section 2). Outcome uncertainty (OU) emerged as a core concept after the first article published in sports economics (Rottenberg, 1956), with a basic argument contending that consumer demand for a sports contest is higher the more uncertain its outcome is expected to be. A given level of competitive balance (CB) translates into a degree of uncertainty about the sport contest's outcome. An abundance of literature devoted to the OU hypothesis has developed in empirically testing the relationship between CB and demand for sports, initially understood as stadium attendance (see e.g. García and Rodríguez, 2002, 2009).