Context matters: the transformative nature of drones on the battlefield

Drones are prevalent on contemporary battlefields, but to what extent and under what conditions is this technology transformative? This chapter tackles the question by evaluating two competing perspectives - one considers drones transformative and destabilizing, the other views drones as just another platform. We present an alternative, third way to evaluate drone proliferation which shows that the transformative nature of drones for the near future depends on the battlefield context. Drones for counterterrorism and nonstate actors are likely to be more influential than in an interstate or intrastate conflict context. Drones for humanitarian intervention and peacekeeping purposes have untapped transformative potential. Ultimately, future generation drones that improve on stealth, speed, size, or ability to swarm are likely to have wider ranging impacts across battlefield contexts.