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Evaluating probabilities for a football in-play betting market

In: The Economics of Sports Betting

Author

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  • Stephen Dobson
  • John Goddard

Abstract

A recent popular development in sports betting markets is the emergence of in-play betting where gamblers can post bets online during a sporting contest. Betting products available for ‘live’ or in-play betting include the match result, the exact score and the identity of the next scorer. This market has shown spectacular growth for European football. In a novel contribution in this chapter, the authors investigate the efficiency of the in-play football betting market as applied to exact scores in the English Premier League over two seasons. They compare betting exchange implied probabilities with probabilities generated from a statistical model and find some discrepancies after key events, especially just after a goal is scored or a player is dismissed from the field of play.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephen Dobson & John Goddard, 2017. "Evaluating probabilities for a football in-play betting market," Chapters, in: Plácido Rodríguez & Brad R. Humphreys & Robert Simmons (ed.), The Economics of Sports Betting, chapter 4, pages 52-70, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    • Handle: RePEc:elg:eechap:16946_4
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    Cited by:

    1. Sung, Ming-Chien & McDonald, David C.J. & Johnson, Johnnie E.V. & Tai, Chung-Ching & Cheah, Eng-Tuck, 2019. "Improving prediction market forecasts by detecting and correcting possible over-reaction to price movements," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 272(1), pages 389-405.

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    Keywords

    Economics and Finance;

    Statistics

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