Longevity Expectations and Death: Can People Predict Their Own Demise?

This study tests the reliability of the most important subjective risk assessment a person can make: an expectation about personal longevity. Using four waves of the Health and Retirement Survey we tested whether longevity expectations match actual mortality at the individual level. Three distinct conclusions emerged from the analysis. First, subjective beliefs about longevity are consistent with individuals' observed survival patterns. After accounting for the selected nature of the sample of surviving respondents for each wave of the HRS survey, we found that observed deaths are "signaled" through the lower longevity expectations respondents report in earlier interviews. Second, the evolution of subjective beliefs from those who later die displays a consistent decline over time. In contrast, survivors' longevity expectations, on average, are higher and approximately constant over the time span observed in the panel. Third, longevity expectations do respond negatively both to serious, new health shocks and to increases in individuals' functional limitations.