Annual assessment of the forecasts included in GEO in 2023

Global Economic Outlook (GEO) provides a monthly overview of the latest economic forecasts from international institutions, selected central banks and Consensus Economics. The impacts of the ongoing war in Ukraine and the resulting energy crisis in Europe also affected the outlooks for last year, especially the longer-term ones. The optimism of the monitored institutions regarding the GDP growth outlooks for 2023 did not materialise in the case of the European states (except Russia), while the monitored non-European states and Russia achieved higher economic growth compared to the outlooks. Also, at the beginning of 2022, none of the monitored institutions expected elevated inflation for 2023 in the monitored states (except China). The outlooks for short-term interest rates at the one-year horizon for the euro area and the United States were accordingly underestimated. The volatility of the exchange rates of the monitored currencies against the US dollar has decreased, and the expected weakening of the dollar has not materialised at the longer end. Over the entire period under review, the forecasts had generally expected a slightly higher oil price.