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Annual assessment of the forecasts included in GEO

In: CNB Global Economic Outlook - June 2019

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  • Filip Novotny

Abstract

Every month, Global Economic Outlook (GEO) provides an overview of the latest economic forecasts issued by international institutions, selected central banks and Consensus Economics. With the benefit of hindsight, it can be said that the monitored institutions were mostly too optimistic with their economic outlooks for 2018. Their forecasts for GDP growth expected higher levels on average. Likewise, expected consumer price inflation was higher than the subsequent outcomes in most cases. At the same time, the outlooks for shortterm interest rates for the euro area were slightly overestimated, while those for rates in the USA were underestimated. As regards the exchange rates of the monitored currencies against the dollar, forecasters expected a stronger dollar for most currency pairs compared to what transpired. The crude oil price was also slightly underestimated in the forecasts on average over the entire assessment period. However, this was in line with the overshot expected inflation in some countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Filip Novotny, 2019. "Annual assessment of the forecasts included in GEO," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: CNB Global Economic Outlook - June 2019, pages 13-21, Czech National Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:cnb:ocpubc:geo2019/6
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