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Edge: A model of the euro area with applications to monetary policy

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  • Kortelainen, Mika

Abstract

Mallin tärkeimpiin ominaisuuksiin kuuluvat Blanc-pääomavarallisuuden arvostaminen pääomatulojen nykyarvona, työmarkkinoiden limittäiset Calvo-sopimukset, ja neoklassinen tarjonta Cobb-Douglas hyötyfunktiolla.Mallin ensimmäinen ja toinen momentti kalibroidaan vastaamaan julkisesti saatavilla olevaa euroalueen dataa.Stokastisilla simuloinneilla tuotettu mallin ristikorrelaatiorakenne muistuttaa euroalueen datan ristikorrelaatiorakennetta.Mallin diagnostiset simulointitulokset ovat talousteoreettisesti luontevia.Heterogeenisten odotusten merkitystä rahapolitiikassa tarkastellaan erottamalla rahapolitiikkaa koskevat yksityisen sektorin ja keskuspankin odotukset toisistaan.Simulointitulokset osoittavat, että kun yksityisen sektorin odotukset poikkeavat keskuspankin odotuksista, talouteen aiheutuu reaalisia kustannuksia.Lisäksi osoitetaan, että nämä kustannukset ovat pienemmät, jos taloudessa on jokin oppimekanismi, joka poistaa erot eri agenttien odotuksissa. Havaitaan myös, että rahapolitiikkaan kohdistuvissa yleisön odotuksissa ilmenevät satunnaiset poikkeamat, joiden tulkitaan kuvaavan häiriöitä rahapolitiikan läpinäkyvyydessä, aiheuttavat kustannuksia vaihtelevuuden voimistumisen vuoksi.Tulokset osoittavat, että heterogeeniset rahapolitiikkaodotukset voivat aiheuttaa merkittäviä taloudellisia kustannuksia. Asiasanat: EDGE, rationaaliset odotukset, heterogeeniset odotukset, oppiminen, dynaaminen yleisen tasapainon malli

Suggested Citation

  • Kortelainen, Mika, 2002. "Edge: A model of the euro area with applications to monetary policy," Bank of Finland Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, volume 0, number sm2002_023, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bofism:sm2002_023
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    Cited by:

    1. Martinez-Martin Jaime & Morris Richard & Onorante Luca & Piersanti Fabio Massimo, 2024. "Merging Structural and Reduced-Form Models for Forecasting," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 24(1), pages 399-437, January.
    2. Kortelainen, Mika, 2007. "Adjustment of the US current account deficit," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 9/2007, Bank of Finland.
    3. Tarkka, Juha & Kortelainen, Mika, 2005. "International economic spillovers and the liquidity trap," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 18/2005, Bank of Finland.
    4. Hlédik, Tibor, 2003. "A calibrated structural model of the Czech economy," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 35/2003, Bank of Finland.
    5. Männistö, Hanna-Leena, 2005. "Forecasting with a forward-looking DGE model: combining long-run views of financial markes with macro forecasting," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 21/2005, Bank of Finland.

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