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Assessment of the Risk of Amazon Dieback

Author

Listed:
  • Walter Vergara
  • Sebastian M. Scholz

Abstract

The Amazon basin is a key component of the global carbon cycle. The old-growth rainforests in the basin represent storage of ~ 120 petagrams of carbon (Pg C) in their biomass. Annually, these tropical forests process approximately 18 Pg C through respiration and photosynthesis. This is more than twice the rate of global anthropogenic fossil fuel emissions. The basin is also the largest global repository of biodiversity and produces about 20 percent of the world's flow of fresh water into the oceans. Despite the large carbon dioxide (CO2) efflux from recent deforestation, the Amazon rainforest ecosystem is still considered to be a net carbon sinks of 0.8-1.1 Pg C per year because growth on average exceeds mortality (Phillips et al. 2008). However, current climate trends and human-induced deforestation may be transforming forest structure and behavior (Phillips et al. 2009). Increasing temperatures may accelerate respiration rates and thus carbon emissions from soils (Malhi and Grace 2000). High probabilities for modification in rainfall patterns (Malhi et al. 2008) and prolonged drought stress may lead to reductions in biomass density. Resulting changes in evapo-transpiration and therefore convective precipitation could further accelerate drought conditions and destabilize the tropical ecosystem as a whole, causing a reduction in its biomass carrying capacity or dieback. In turn, changes in the structure of the Amazon and its associated water cycle will have implications for the many endemic species it contains and result in changes at a continental scale. Clearly, with much at stake, if climate-induced damage alters the state of the Amazon ecosystem, there is a need to better understand its risk, process, and dynamics. The objective of this study is to assist in understanding the risk, process, and dynamics of potential Amazon dieback and its implications.

Suggested Citation

  • Walter Vergara & Sebastian M. Scholz, 2011. "Assessment of the Risk of Amazon Dieback," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 2531.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbpubs:2531
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Walter Vergara & Ana R. Rios & Luis Miguel Galindo Paliza & Pablo Gutman & Paul Isbell & Paul Hugo Suding & Joseluis Samaniego, 2013. "The Climate and Development Challenge for Latin America and the Caribbean: Options for Climate-Resilient, Low-Carbon Development," IDB Publications (Books), Inter-American Development Bank, number 80518, February.
    2. repec:idb:brikps:456 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Strand, Jon, 2017. "Modeling the marginal value of rainforest losses: A dynamic value function approach," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 322-329.
    4. Coates, D. & Pert, P. L. & Barron, J. & Muthuri, C. & Nguyen-Khoa, S. & Boelee, Eline & Jarvis, D. I., 2013. "Water-related ecosystem services and food security," Book Chapters,, International Water Management Institute.
    5. Jane Ebinger & Walter Vergara, 2011. "Climate Impacts on Energy Systems : Key Issues for Energy Sector Adaptation," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 2271.
    6. Walter Vergara & Alejandro Deeb & Irene Leino & Akio Kitoh & Marisa Escobar, 2011. "Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change on Mountain Hydrology : Development of a Methodology through a Case Study in the Andes of Peru," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 2278.

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