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Global Economic Prospects, June 2010

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  • World Bank

Abstract

Market nervousness concerning the fiscal positions of several European high-income countries poses a new challenge for the world economy. This arises as the recovery is transitioning toward a more mature phase during which the influence of rebound factors (such as fiscal stimulus) fades, and gross domestic product (GDP) gains will increasingly depend on private investment and consumption. So far evolving financial developments in Europe have had limited effects on financial conditions in developing countries. Although global equity markets dropped between 8 and 17 percent, there has been little fallout on most developing-country risk premia. And despite a sharp deceleration in bond flows in May, year-to-date capital flows to developing countries during the first 5 months of 2010 are up 90 percent from the same period in 2009. The economic impact on long-term growth in developing countries of a forced pullback from growth-enhancing infrastructure and human-capital investment due to lower fiscal revenues, weaker official development assistance (ODA), and sluggish capital flows, are difficult to gauge, as are the effects on private sector growth of tighter financial sector regulations, and increased competition for capital from high-income sovereigns. Global economic prospects: crisis, finance and growth estimated that just the latter two factors could reduce developing country growth rates by between 0.2 and 0.7 percent for a period of 5 to 7 years.

Suggested Citation

  • World Bank, 2010. "Global Economic Prospects, June 2010," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 12104.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbpubs:12104
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    File URL: https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/12104/GEP1.pdf?sequence=1
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    Cited by:

    1. Simon J.Evenett & Mia Mikic & Ravi Ratnayake (ed.), 2011. "Trade-led growth: A sound strategy for Asia," ARTNeT Books and Research Reports, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), number brr10.
    2. Grigoryev, Leonid & Makarova, Ekaterina, 2019. "Норма Накопления И Экономический Рост: Сдвиги После Великой Рецессии [Capital accumulation and economic growth after the Great Recession]," MPRA Paper 102524, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Liotti, Giorgio, 2020. "Labour market flexibility, economic crisis and youth unemployment in Italy," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 150-162.
    4. Dairabayeva Karlygash & Carayannis Elias, 2014. "Targeted Trade-Related Policies and Manufacturing Firm Productivity in Eastern Europe and Central Asia: Effect of Corruption," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 14(2), pages 265-286, April.
    5. MOLDOVAN Iosif, 2013. "Arguments For The Establishment Of A Sovereign Investment Fund In Romania," Studies in Business and Economics, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 8(2), pages 68-73, August.
    6. Justin Yifu Lin & Will Martin, 2010. "The financial crisis and its impacts on global agriculture," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 41(s1), pages 133-144, November.
    7. I.N. Mukherji, 2011. "Bilateral Free Trade Agreements in South Asia: Typologies, Rationale, Characteristics, and Impact," Millennial Asia, , vol. 2(2), pages 229-257, July.
    8. Sahana Roy Chowdhury, 2011. "Impact of Global Crisis on Small and Medium Enterprises," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 12(3), pages 377-399, October.
    9. Sudip Chakraborty, 2018. "Significance of BRICS: Regional Powers, Global Governance, and the Roadmap for Multipolar World," Emerging Economy Studies, International Management Institute, vol. 4(2), pages 182-191, November.

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