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Risk Aspects of Investment-Based Social Security Reform

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Listed:
  • Campbell, John Y.
  • Feldstein, Martin

Abstract

Our current social security system operates on a pay-as-you-go basis; benefits are paid almost entirely out of current revenues. As the ratio of retirees to taxpayers increases, concern about the high costs of providing benefits in a pay-as-you-go system has led economists to explore other options. One involves "prefunding," in which a person's withholdings are invested in financial instruments, such as stocks and bonds, the eventual returns from which would fund his or her retirement. The risks such a system would introduce—such as the volatility in the market prices of investment assets—are the focus of this offering from the NBER. Exploring the issues involved in measuring risk and developing models to reflect the risks of various investment-based systems, economists evaluate the magnitude of the risks that both retirees and taxpayers would assume. The insights that emerge show that the risk is actually moderate relative to the improved return, as well as being balanced by the ability of an investment-based system to adapt to differences in individual preferences and conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Campbell, John Y. & Feldstein, Martin (ed.), 2000. "Risk Aspects of Investment-Based Social Security Reform," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226092553, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:bknber:9780226092553
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Harris, Amy Rehder & Meyerson, Noah & Smith, Joel, 2001. "Social Insecurity? The Effects of Equity Investments on Social Security Finances," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 54(3), pages 645-668, September.
    2. Lancia, Francesco & Russo, Alessia & Worrall, Tim S, 2020. "Optimal Sustainable Intergenerational Insurance," CEPR Discussion Papers 15540, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Olivia S. Mitchell, 2001. "Developments in Decumulation: The Role of Annuity Products in Financing Retirement," NBER Working Papers 8567, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Gong, Guan & Webb, Anthony, 2010. "Evaluating the Advanced Life Deferred Annuity -- An annuity people might actually buy," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 210-221, February.
    5. Robert C. Merton & Zvi Bodie, 2005. "Design Of Financial Systems: Towards A Synthesis Of Function And Structure," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: H Gifford Fong (ed.), The World Of Risk Management, chapter 1, pages 1-27, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    6. Martin Barbie & Marcus Hagedorn & Ashok Kaul, 2006. "Fostering Within-Family Human-Capital Investment: An Intragenerational Insurance Perspective of Social Security," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 62(4), pages 503-529, December.
    7. Antonio Rangel, 1999. "Forward and Backward Intergenerational Goods: A Theory of Intergenerational Exchange," Working Papers 00001, Stanford University, Department of Economics.
    8. David McCarthy & Olivia S. Mitchell, 2004. "Annuities for an ageing world," Chapters, in: Elsa Fornero & Elisa Luciano (ed.), Developing an Annuity Market in Europe, chapter 2, pages 13-48, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    9. Gabay, Daniel & Grasselli, Martino, 2012. "Fair demographic risk sharing in defined contribution pension systems," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 657-669.
    10. Pecchenino, Rowena A. & Pollard, Patricia S., 2002. "Dependent children and aged parents: funding education and social security in an aging economy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 145-169, June.
    11. John F. Cogan & Olivia S. Mitchell, 2003. "Perspectives from the President's Commission on Social Security Reform," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(2), pages 149-172, Spring.
    12. Rowena A. Pecchenino & Patricia S. Pollard, 2005. "Aging, Myopia, and the Pay‐As‐You‐Go Public Pension Systems of the G7: A Bright Future?," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 7(3), pages 449-470, August.
    13. Milevsky, Moshe A. & Young, Virginia R., 2007. "The timing of annuitization: Investment dominance and mortality risk," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 135-144, January.
    14. David W. Wilcox, 2009. "Comment on "Reducing the Risk of Investment-Based Social Security Reform"," NBER Chapters, in: Social Security Policy in a Changing Environment, pages 218-227, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Zvi Bodie & Jérôme Detemple & Marcel Rindisbacher, 2009. "Life-Cycle Finance and the Design of Pension Plans," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 249-286, November.

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