European Natural Gas Demand, Supply, and Pricing: Cycles, Seasons, and the Impact of LNG Price Arbitrage

Natural gas is expected to be the fastest growing fuel consumed in Western Europe in the coming decades. This book provides in depth analyses of the actual natural gas markets in Europe and by 2020. Using a bottom-up methodology, the study gives scenarios for gas demand for the power sector -which is seen as the main driver for gas demand rise- and for the non-power sectors. The book gives detailed information on the future supplies by pipelines and by LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas). Matching the demand and supplies projections, the book gives some annual and seasonal scenarios and establishes potential market cycles by 2020: periods when gas supply/demand gap could be tight or, on the contrary, periods when gas bubbles are possible. The study look into detail at the nine major gas markets in Europe, which represented about 90 percent of total gas consumption in 2005: UK, Germany, Italy, France, Netherlands, Spain, Belgium, Hungary and Poland. One of the most important aspects of the future gas market is the significant development in competition for securing new supplies and the resulting growth in inter-regional trade. It is in this environment that Europe finds itself competing to attract the necessary new gas supplies, especially during the winter when gas demand peaks. The study asks key questions regarding the future of natural gas in Europe, such as security of supply, the impacts of LNG in the markets, the relationship between spot gas prices and oil-indexed prices, etc. This research provides essential information and analyses for anyone working in the natural gas business, from private or public gas companies to academics.