Energy Outlook and Energy Saving Potential in East Asia 2020

The Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)–East Asia Summit (EAS) Energy Outlook was updated in 2019–2020 based on a revision of macro assumptions, such as economic and population growth as well as lower crude oil prices. This outlook also incorporates more recent information on the EAS17 member countries’ energy-saving goals and action plans, and power development plans such as those regarding renewable electricity. The EAS17 Outlook 2020 includes an estimation of the investment cost required for power generation and the whole energy infrastructure, including liquefied natural gas (LNG) receiving terminals and oil refineries. The outlook again focuses on analysing the additional energy savings that might be achieved by the individual countries above and beyond the Business-as-Usual scenario (BAU) projection. It continues to examine two scenarios – BAU and the Alternative Policy Scenario (APS) – and predicts energy supply, consumption, and CO2 emissions from 2017 up until 2050. The APS includes not only more ambitious energy-saving targets but also rapid advances in low-carbon energy technologies, especially renewable energy. The outlook also assesses the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC)/NDC reported by EAS17 countries. Energy supply security has become a top priority energy issue for the EAS17 region. Implementing Energy Efficiency and Conservation measures and increasing renewable energy shares will certainly contribute to maintaining regional energy security through the reduction of imported fossil fuel consumption and increasing the use of domestic energy. Regional energy networks, such as the Trans-ASEAN Gas Pipeline and the ASEAN Power Grid, and oil stockpiling are recommended to be set up and their use accelerated to maintain energy supply security. Nuclear power generation always remains one of the energy options for securing the region’s energy supply.