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Stress testing and financial risks

Editor

Listed:
  • Avouyi-Dovi, Sanvi

Author

Listed:
  • Koliai, Lyes

Abstract

This thesis has set a comprehensive framework to assess the relevance of financial stress tests, identifying their main drawbacks. Three robust and flexible model frameworks have been proposed to improve current practices in each of the tests’ stages. This is achieved through: (i) a semi-parametric EVT–Pair-copulas model for financial risk factors, with a specific focus on extreme values, (ii) a valuation model to assess the impact of risk factors on a financial system, through direct and indirect effects, contagion channels, and considering private and public response functions, and (iii) a Bayesian-based approach to run a systematic selection of stress scenarios for nonlinear portfolios. The presented risk model has proven to outperform commonly used specifications, hence increasing the test’s credibility. Estimated for the French banking system, the valuation model revealed the related risk profile and the main vulnerabilities. Public responses turned to be of vital interest. Finally, the Bayesian approach allows replacing the traditional subjective scenarios and including the tests’ results in quantitative risk management alongside with other conventional tools

Suggested Citation

  • Koliai, Lyes, 2014. "Stress testing and financial risks," Economics Thesis from University Paris Dauphine, Paris Dauphine University, number 123456789/15231 edited by Avouyi-Dovi, Sanvi.
    • Handle: RePEc:dau:thesis:123456789/15231
    Note: dissertation
    as

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stress tests; Scénario; Tve; Copules-Paires; Risque systémique; Gestion des risques; Inférence bayésienne; Stress testing; Scenario; Evt; Pair-Copulas; Systemic risk; Risk management; Bayesian inference;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • D85 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Network Formation
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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