Le protocole de Kyoto et les mécanismes de développement propre (MDP) : quels impacts pour les pays en développement à l'horizon 2020--2050 ?

The present thesis focuses on the definition of potential Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) (or other successor mechanism) financial flows at the horizon of 2020 and 2050 and on their impact on recipient countries’ economies. The analysis is completed by an overview of the current CDM characteristics, not only through a comparison with other financial flows (Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) and Official development Assistance (ODA)) typical for developing countries, but also through a detailed survey of the conditions that would ease the spread of greater spill-over effects and through an analysis of the current impacts on host countries’ economic growth. At last, the thesis presents an overview of the current CDM impacts in terms of technology transfers and sustainable development and it proposes a detailed overview of the main offset- mechanism limits, the undergone improvements and the alternative solutions. Thus, the thesis shows the positive impact that projects under the CDM or any potential successor mechanisms can have in terms of perceived investments, issued carbon emission reductions, economic growth, technology transfers and, ultimately, sustainable development within non-Annex I host countries. In addition, it demonstrates that larger share of benefits will be earned by those countries that would be able to absorb greater spill-over effects through their more favourable conditions in terms of renewable energies infrastructure, credit facilities and qualified human capital availability. For both Annex I and non-Annex I countries, the generalization of an improved sustainable successor mechanisms, in combination with robust capacity building programs, should be of the highest interest in any future negotiations under the UNFCCC.