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Probability, Econometrics and Truth

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  • Keuzenkamp,Hugo A.

Abstract

When John Maynard Keynes likened Jan Tinbergen's early work in econometrics to black magic and alchemy, he was expressing a widely held view of a new discipline. However, even after half a century of practical work and theorizing by some of the most accomplished social scientists, Keynes' comments are still repeated today. This book assesses the foundations and development of econometrics and sets out a basis for the reconstruction of the foundations of econometric inference by examining the various interpretations of probability theory which underlie econometrics. Keuzenkamp claims that the probabilistic foundations of econometrics are weak, and although econometric inferences may yield interesting knowledge, claims to be able to falsify or verify economic theories are unwarranted. Methodological falsificationism in econometrics is an illusion. Instead, it is argued, econometrics should locate itself in the tradition of positivism.

Suggested Citation

  • Keuzenkamp,Hugo A., 2006. "Probability, Econometrics and Truth," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521029735, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:cbooks:9780521029735
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    Cited by:

    1. János Kollo & Bence Czafit, 2014. "Labor Market Careers before and after Incarceration," Budapest Working Papers on the Labour Market 1408, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    2. Köllő, János & Czafit, Bence, 2014. "Labor Market Careers Before and After Incarceration," IZA Discussion Papers 8644, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

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