IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/b/ces/ifofob/131.html
   My bibliography  Save this book

Economic effects of Brexit on the German and European economy - updated estimation considering current developments

Author

Listed:
  • Lisandra Flach
  • Gabriel Felbermayr
  • Rolf Langhammer
  • Jasmin Gröschl
  • Katrin Kamin
  • Feodora Teti
  • Sonali Chowdhry
  • Marina Steininger
  • Lena Wiest
  • Gabriel J. Felbermayr

Abstract

This study aims to quantify the economic effects of the United Kingdom’s (UK) exit from the European Union (EU) on the German and European economy. It first described the changes in the economic relations between the UK and the EU since the Brexit referendum in 2016 and puts current developments and possible scenarios into their economic context. The ifo simulation model is then used to quantify the economic effects of either a hard or soft Brexit on the German and European economy. In both scenarios, there will be negative effects on the real GDP of Germany, the UK and the remaining EU member states, on the exports of the German goods industry, as well as changes of sectoral value creation leading to negative effects especially for the automobile industry and service sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Lisandra Flach & Gabriel Felbermayr & Rolf Langhammer & Jasmin Gröschl & Katrin Kamin & Feodora Teti & Sonali Chowdhry & Marina Steininger & Lena Wiest & Gabriel J. Felbermayr, 2022. "Economic effects of Brexit on the German and European economy - updated estimation considering current developments," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 131.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifofob:131
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/ifo_Forschungsbericht_131_Oekonomische_Effekte_eines_Brexit.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hylke Vandenbussche & William Connell & Wouter Simons, 2022. "Global value chains, trade shocks and jobs: An application to Brexit," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(8), pages 2338-2369, August.
    2. Marcel P. Timmer & Erik Dietzenbacher & Bart Los & Robert Stehrer & Gaaitzen J. Vries, 2015. "An Illustrated User Guide to the World Input–Output Database: the Case of Global Automotive Production," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 575-605, August.
    3. Steinberg, Joseph B., 2019. "Brexit and the macroeconomic impact of trade policy uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 175-195.
    4. Alessandro Sforza & Marina Steininger, 2020. "Globalization in the Time of Covid-19," CESifo Working Paper Series 8184, CESifo.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Peter Eppinger & Gabriel J. Felbermayr & Oliver Krebs & Bohdan Kukharskyy, 2021. "Decoupling Global Value Chains," CESifo Working Paper Series 9079, CESifo.
    2. Gabriel Felbermayr & Jasmin Gröschl & Marina Steininger, 2022. "Quantifying Brexit: from ex post to ex ante using structural gravity," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 158(2), pages 401-465, May.
    3. Yuko Imura, 2023. "Reassessing Trade Barriers with Global Production Networks," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 77-116, December.
    4. Mustapha Douch & Terence Huw Edwards, 2022. "The bilateral trade effects of announcement shocks: Brexit as a natural field experiment," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(2), pages 305-329, March.
    5. Bloom, Nicholas & Bunn, Philip & Chen, Scarlet & Mizen, Paul & Smietanka, Pawel & Thwaites, Gregory, 2019. "The impact of Brexit on UK firms," Bank of England working papers 818, Bank of England.
    6. Patrick Bisciari, 2019. "A survey of the long-term impact of Brexit on the UK and the EU27 economies," Working Paper Research 366, National Bank of Belgium.
    7. Keita, Sekou & Stepanok, Ignat & Vallizadeh, Ehsan, 2020. "Beschäftigungsrelevanz des Handels mit dem Vereinigten Königreich: Exportabhängige Arbeitsplätze sind über Branchen und Regionen ungleich verteilt," IAB-Kurzbericht 202001, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    8. Swati Dhingra & Rebecca Freeman & Hanwei Huang, 2023. "The Impact of Non‐tariff Barriers on Trade and Welfare," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 90(357), pages 140-177, January.
    9. Rossella Bardazzi & Leonardo Ghezzi, 2022. "Large-scale multinational shocks and international trade: a non-zero-sum game," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(4), pages 383-409, October.
    10. Rachel Griffith & Peter Levell & Agnes Norris Keiller, 2021. "Potential Consequences of Post‐Brexit Trade Barriers for Earnings Inequality in the UK," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 88(352), pages 839-862, October.
    11. Giammetti, Raffaele, 2019. "Tariffs, Domestic Import Substitution and Trade Diversion in Input-Output Production Networks: how to deal with Brexit," MPRA Paper 93229, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. João Amador & Sónia Cabral & Rossana Mastrandrea & Franco Ruzzenenti, 2018. "Who’s Who in Global Value Chains? A Weighted Network Approach," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 29(5), pages 1039-1059, November.
    13. Eppinger, Peter S. & Felbermayr, Gabriel & Krebs, Oliver & Kukharskyy, Bohdan, 2020. "Covid-19 shocking global value chains," Kiel Working Papers 2167, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    14. Rolf J. Langhammer & Lisandra Flach & Feodora Teti & Lena Wiest & Margherita Atzei & Lisa Scheckenhofer & Joachim Wuermeling & Carsten Hefeker & Friedemann Kainer & Philipp Harms & Michael Kaeding, 2020. "Brexit-Finale: Das letzte Ringen um einen Deal," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(12), pages 03-27, December.
    15. Rita Cappariello & Milan Damjanovic & Michele Mancini & Filippo Vergara Caffarelli, 2018. "EU-UK global value chain trade and the indirect costs of Brexit," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 468, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    16. Christine Arriola & Caitlyn Carrico & David Haugh & Nigel Pain & Elena Rusticelli & Donal Smith & Frank van Tongeren & Ben Westmore, 2018. "The Potential Macroeconomic and Sectoral Consequences of Brexit on Ireland," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1508, OECD Publishing.
    17. Joseph B. Steinberg, 2020. "The macroeconomic impact of NAFTA termination," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(2), pages 821-865, May.
    18. Alali, Walid Y. & Ellalee, Haider, 2019. "Production and Foreign Investment Affected by Brexit," EconStor Preprints 274652, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    19. Antoine Berthou & Sophie Haincourt & Marie-Elisabeth de la Serve & Ángel Estrada & Moritz A. Roth & Alexander Kadow, 2019. "Assessing the macroeconomic impact of Brexit through trade and migration channels," Occasional Papers 1911, Banco de España.
    20. repec:zbw:bofitp:2019_017 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Inferrera, Sergio, 2021. "Globalisation in Europe: Consequences for the business environment and future patterns in light of Covid-19," IWH-CompNet Discussion Papers 2/2021, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ifofob:131. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ifooode.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.