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Der Zusammenhang zwischen Verschuldung, Budgetzusammensetzung und volkswirtschaftlichem Wachstum

Author

Listed:
  • Luisa Dörr
  • Klaus Gründler
  • Martin Mosler
  • Niklas Potrafke

Abstract

Die Studie untersucht den Zusammenhang zwischen Staatsverschuldung, Maßnahmen zur Konsolidierung öffentlicher Haushalte und Wirtschaftswachstum. Ein besonderes Augenmerk liegt auf der Zusammensetzung des öffentlichen Budgets und der damit verbundenen Frage, welche Ausgabenveränderungen sich im Rahmen von Konsolidierungsmaßnahmen eher positiv oder negativ auf die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung auswirken. Die deskriptive Analyse zeigt, dass Deutschland im Vergleich zu anderen EU-Mitgliedsstaaten einen überdurchschnittlich hohen Anteil seines öffentlichen Budgets für die soziale Sicherung und das Gesundheitswesen aufbringt. Die relativen Ausgaben für das Bildungs- und Transportwesen, Umweltschutz sowie die Verteidigung sind hingegen geringer als in vergleichbaren europäischen Ländern. Die empirische Analyse zeigt, dass Staatsverschuldung und Wirtschaftswachstum negativ korreliert sind, und dass eine Konsolidierung der Haushalte über Ausgabenkürzungen aus Wachstumsgesichtspunkten einer Konsolidierung über Steuererhöhungen vorzuziehen ist. Besonders konsumtive Ausgaben sind negativ mit Wachstum korreliert und bieten daher Spielraum für wachstumsfreundliche Konsolidierung. Positiv mit Wachstum korreliert sind vor allem Ausgaben für Forschung und Entwicklung sowie tendenziell Ausgaben für das Bildungswesen.

Suggested Citation

  • Luisa Dörr & Klaus Gründler & Martin Mosler & Niklas Potrafke, 2019. "Der Zusammenhang zwischen Verschuldung, Budgetzusammensetzung und volkswirtschaftlichem Wachstum," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 107.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifofob:107
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    References listed on IDEAS

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