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Towards a Quantitative Model of Epidemics during Conflicts

Author

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  • Soumya Banerjee

    (University of Oxford, Mathematical Institute, Oxford, United Kingdom)

Abstract

Epidemics may contribute to and arise as a result of conflict. The effects of conflict on infectious diseases are complex. There have been counter-intuitive observations of both increase and decrease in disease outbreaks during and after conflicts. However there is no unified mathematical model that explains all these observations. There is an urgent need for a quantitative framework for modelling conflicts and epidemics. The article introduces a set of mathematical models to understand the role of conflicts in epidemics. The corresponding mathematical framework has the potential to explain the counter intuitive observations and the complex role of human conflicts in epidemics. This work suggests that aid and peacekeeping organizations should take an integrated approach that combines public health measures, socio-economic development, and peacekeeping in conflict zones. This approach exemplifies the role of non-linear thinking in complex systems like human societies. The work presented should be looked upon as a first step towards a quantitative model of disease spread in conflicts.

Suggested Citation

  • Soumya Banerjee, 2019. "Towards a Quantitative Model of Epidemics during Conflicts," Interdisciplinary Description of Complex Systems - scientific journal, Croatian Interdisciplinary Society Provider Homepage: http://indecs.eu, vol. 17(3-B), pages 598-614.
    • Handle: RePEc:zna:indecs:v:17:y:2019:i:3-b:p:598-614
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    File URL: http://indecs.eu/2019/indecs2019-pp598-614.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Soumya Banerjee, 2017. "An Immune System Inspired Theory for Crime and Violence in Cities," Interdisciplinary Description of Complex Systems - scientific journal, Croatian Interdisciplinary Society Provider Homepage: http://indecs.eu, vol. 15(2), pages 133-143.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chowdhury, Subhasish & Karmakar, Senjuti, 2022. "The Interrelationship between the COVID-19 Pandemic and Conflict Behavior: A Survey," MPRA Paper 113311, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    simulation models; epidemics; conflicts;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C65 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Miscellaneous Mathematical Tools

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