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Impact Of Climate Change On Rainfall In The Irrigated Indus Basin: A Case Study In The Lower Chenab Canal System

Author

Listed:
  • Muhammad Mohsin Waqas

    (Department of Agricultural Engineering, Khawaja Fareed University of Engineering and Information Technology, Rahim Yar Khan, Pakistan)

  • Yasir Niaz

    (Department of Agricultural Engineering, Khawaja Fareed University of Engineering and Information Technology, Rahim Yar Khan, Pakistan)

  • Haroon Rashid

    (Department of Civil Engineering, Khawaja Fareed University of Engineering and Information Technology, Rahim Yar Khan, Pakistan)

  • Muhammad Adnan Bodlah

    (Department of Agricultural Engineering, Khawaja Fareed University of Engineering and Information Technology, Rahim Yar Khan, Pakistan)

  • Sikandar Ali

    (Department of Irrigation and Drainage, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad)

  • Hassan Raza

    (Department of Agricultural Engineering, Khawaja Fareed University of Engineering and Information Technology, Rahim Yar Khan, Pakistan)

  • Muhammad Fahad

    (PMAS-ARID Agriculture University, Rawalpindi)

  • Muhammad Ishfaq

    (Centre for Climate Research and Development, COMSAT, Islamabad)

  • Syed Hamid Hussain Shah

    (Faculty of Science and Technology, Athabasca University, Canada)

Abstract

Impact of climate change on the water resources is considerable for the future policy making. Climate change impact on the irrigated Indus basin is also significant as it is in the upper Indus basin. In hydrological cycle, rainfall is the most important component and has significant contribution in the crop water requirement. Recharge in the aquifer is not a hidden phenomenon during the monsoon period in the irrigated Indus basin. Impact of climate change on the rainfall was studied using the Hadley Climate model version 3 (HadCM3). HadCM3 provides the A2 and B2 scenario and its impact on the future climatic parameters. Statistical downscaling model (SDSM) was used for downscaling the rainfall in the selected area of the Faisalabad irrigation zone. NCEP predictors was used for the assessment of the downscaled data using SDSM. Percentage change in the rainfall was observed for the midcentury (2040-2069) as compared to the base period (1981-2010). Results reveled the increase in the rainfall during the Rabi season. While significant decrease in the rainfall was observed during the monsoon season. Maximum percentage decrease in the rainfall was observed 6.42% and 61.9% in the month of November under A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. Similarly, maximum percentage increase in the rainfall was observed 10.4.6% and 101.4% in the month of November under A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. Decrease in the rainfall was observed in the months of monsoon and in April. While the increase in the rainfall was observed in the remaining period.

Suggested Citation

  • Muhammad Mohsin Waqas & Yasir Niaz & Haroon Rashid & Muhammad Adnan Bodlah & Sikandar Ali & Hassan Raza & Muhammad Fahad & Muhammad Ishfaq & Syed Hamid Hussain Shah, 2020. "Impact Of Climate Change On Rainfall In The Irrigated Indus Basin: A Case Study In The Lower Chenab Canal System," Big Data In Agriculture (BDA), Zibeline International Publishing, vol. 2(1), pages 10-12, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:zib:zbnbda:v:2:y:2020:i:1:p:10-12
    DOI: 10.26480/bda.01.2020.10.12
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    Keywords

    Climate Change; HadCM3; SDSM; Rainfall;
    All these keywords.

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