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Wie genau sind Konjunkturprognosen?

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  • Kappler, Marcus

Abstract

Konjunkturprognosen werden regelmäßig von Instituten, Banken und Versicherungen veröffentlicht, wie beispielsweise vor kurzem im Rahmen des Frühjahrsgutachtens derWirtschaftsforschungsinstitute. Vor allem die sogenannten Punktprognosen zu wichtigen gesamtwirtschaftlichen Kennzahlen erhalten dabei besondere Aufmerksamkeit. Die statistische Unschärfe, die mit diesen Prognosen verbunden ist, wird allerdings kaum kommuniziert.

Suggested Citation

  • Kappler, Marcus, 2005. "Wie genau sind Konjunkturprognosen?," ZEW Wachstums- und Konjunkturanalysen, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, vol. 8(2), pages 8-9.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:zewwka:125947
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