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Muss die Bevölkerung in Deutschland schrumpfen?

Author

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  • Babel, Bernhard
  • Bomsdorf, Eckart

Abstract

In den Diskussionen um die demographische Entwicklung in Deutschland bleibt häufig unberücksichtigt, dass die Bevölkerungsvorausberechnungen nur modellhaften Charakter haben können, da sie annahmenabhängig sind. Welche Auswirkungen auf den Bevölkerungsumfang ergeben sich in Deutschland bis 2050, wenn die Annahmen an die Realität angepasst werden? Welche Konsequenzen sind für den Alten- und den Jungenquotienten zu erwarten? Welche Werte müssen die Bevölkerungskomponenten Fertilität, Migration und Mortalität annehmen, damit ein gegebener Bevölkerungsumfang erhalten bleibt?

Suggested Citation

  • Babel, Bernhard & Bomsdorf, Eckart, 2007. "Muss die Bevölkerung in Deutschland schrumpfen?," Wirtschaftsdienst – Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftspolitik (1949 - 2007), ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 87(6), pages 391-396.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:wirtdi:42755
    DOI: 10.1007/s10273-007-0664-7
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    Cited by:

    1. Eckart Bomsdorf, 2008. "Höhere Erwerbsbeteiligung der Frauen und Rente mit 67 können Arbeitskräfteangebot stabilisieren – Modellrechnungen für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland bis 2050," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 61(13), pages 11-21, July.
    2. Eckart Bomsdorf, 2010. "Rückgang der Bevölkerung – Zunahme der Pflegefälle Divergierende Entwicklungen in Deutschland bis 2050," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer;Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft - German Statistical Society, vol. 4(1), pages 3-18, June.

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