IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/zbw/jcreco/253653.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Possible Unemployment Cost of Average Inflation Below a Credible Target. A Replication Study of Svensson (American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2015)

Author

Listed:
  • Oraby, Ramy

Abstract

This paper replicates the main analysis of Svensson (2015) with some expansion to the original analysis, mainly for the United States. Overall, the replication exercise successfully confirms the conclusions of Svensson (2015). In both Sweden and the United States, empirical evidence sup- ports the existence of a non-vertical long run Phillips curve. The slope of the long run Phillips curve recorded -0.75 in Sweden and -0.23 in the United States. While the average inflation rate in the United States was very close to its targeted level, the average inflation rate in Sweden was 0.6 per- centage points below its targeted level over the sample period. The deviation of inflation rate from its targeted level in Sweden resulted in an unemployment cost equivalent to 0.8 percentage points over the sample period where the average unemployment rate recorded 7.4 percent compared with an estimated 6.6 percent had the average inflation rate been at its targeted level.

Suggested Citation

  • Oraby, Ramy, 2022. "The Possible Unemployment Cost of Average Inflation Below a Credible Target. A Replication Study of Svensson (American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2015)," Journal of Comments and Replications in Economics (JCRE), ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 1(2022-2), pages 1-21.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:jcreco:253653
    DOI: 10.18718/81781.24
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/253653/1/JCRE-2022-2.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.18718/81781.24?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Laurence Ball & Sandeep Mazumder, 2019. "A Phillips Curve with Anchored Expectations and Short‐Term Unemployment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(1), pages 111-137, February.
    2. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2015. "The Possible Unemployment Cost of Average Inflation below a Credible Target," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 258-296, January.
    3. Andersson, Fredrik N. G. & Jonung, Lars, 2014. "The Return of the Original Phillips curve? An Assessment of Lars E. O. Svensson's Critique of the Riksbank's Inflation Targeting, 1997-2012," Working Papers 2014:28, Lund University, Department of Economics, revised 10 Dec 2015.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Luís Aguiar-Conraria & Manuel M. F. Martins & Maria Joana Soares, 2019. "The Phillips Curve at 60: time for time and frequency," NIPE Working Papers 04/2019, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    2. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2019_012 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Luís Aguiar-Conraria & Manuel M. F. Martins & Maria Joana Soares, 2019. "The Phillips Curve at 60: time for time and frequency," CEF.UP Working Papers 1902, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    4. Günes Kamber & Madhusudan Mohanty & James Morley, 2020. "What drives inflation in advanced and emerging market economies?," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Inflation dynamics in Asia and the Pacific, volume 111, pages 21-36, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Karimova, Amira & Simsek, Esra & Orhan, Mehmet, 2020. "Policy implications of the Lucas Critique empirically tested along the global financial crisis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 153-172.
    6. Marianna Riggi & Sergio Santoro, 2015. "On the Slope and the Persistence of the Italian Phillips Curve," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11(2), pages 157-197, March.
    7. Vijay VICTOR & Maria FEKETE FARKAS & Florence JEESON, 2018. "Inflation unemployment dynamics in Hungary – A structured cointegration and vector error correction model approach," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(2(615), S), pages 195-204, Summer.
    8. Raffinot, Thomas, 2017. "Interest-Rates-Free Monetary Policy Rule," Working Papers 06898, George Mason University, Mercatus Center.
    9. repec:ecb:ecbdps:202424 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Jonathon Hazell, 2024. "Comment on "The Dominant Role of Expectations and Broad Based Supply Shocks in Driving Inflation"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2024, volume 39, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Benati, Luca, 2015. "The long-run Phillips curve: A structural VAR investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 15-28.
    12. Ernst, Ekkehard & Semmler, Willi & Haider, Alexander, 2017. "Debt-deflation, financial market stress and regime change – Evidence from Europe using MRVAR," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 115-139.
    13. Antonio M. Conti & Concetta Gigante, 2018. "Weakness in Italy�s core inflation and the Phillips curve: the role of labour and financial indicators," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 466, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    14. Duncan, Roberto & Martínez-García, Enrique, 2019. "New perspectives on forecasting inflation in emerging market economies: An empirical assessment," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1008-1031.
    15. Bonam, Dennis & de Haan, Jakob & van Limbergen, Duncan, 2021. "Time-varying wage Phillips curves in the euro area with a new measure for labor market slack," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 157-171.
    16. Guido Ascari & Paolo Bonomolo & Qazi Haque, 2023. "The Long-Run Phillips Curve is ... a Curve," Working Papers 789, DNB.
    17. Luis J. Álvarez & Maria Dolores Gadea & Ana Gómez‐Loscos, 2021. "Inflation comovements in advanced economies: Facts and drivers," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(2), pages 485-509, February.
    18. Federico Bassi & Andrea Boitani, 2021. "Monetary and macroprudential policy: The multiplier effects of cooperation," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def110, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    19. Lieberknecht, Philipp, 2018. "Financial Frictions, the Phillips Curve and Monetary Policy," MPRA Paper 89429, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Vladimir Mihajlović & Gordana Marjanović, 2020. "Asymmetries in effects of domestic inflation drivers in the Baltic States: a Phillips curve-based nonlinear ARDL approach," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 20(1), pages 94-116.
    21. Robert G Murphy & Adam Rohde, 2018. "Rational Bias in Inflation Expectations," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 44(1), pages 153-171, January.
    22. Antonio Ribba, 2020. "Is the unemployment–inflation trade‐off still alive in the Euro Area and its member countries? It seems so," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(9), pages 2393-2410, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary Policy; Central Banks; Phillips Curve; Inflation; Expectations; Unemployment; Replication Study;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:jcreco:253653. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/zbwkide.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.