IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/zbw/espost/175834.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modelling Monthly Headline Consumer Price Index (HCPI) through Seasonal Box-Jenkins Methodology

Author

Listed:
  • Jackson, Emerson Abraham
  • Sillah, Abdulai
  • Tamuke, Edmund

Abstract

In this empirical work, cognisance has been given to providing a review of literature on the seasonal Box- Jenkins modelling, particularly with reference to a univariate model. Seasonal pattern of Headline Consumer Price Index (HCPI) has been produced for Sierra Leone and with EVIEWS making use of best model selection of (6,0)(0,0). Data were seasonally adjusted with iteration and sufficient diagnostic test outcomes showing that forecast using Static method yielded best outcome, with Year-on-Year inflation over the three monthly period forecasted outcomes. The correlogram of the resultant series revealed very stable outcome of the results, while MAPE for the forecast evaluation revealing marginal error for the outcome, indicating that the model is quite adequate with the chosen methodology.

Suggested Citation

  • Jackson, Emerson Abraham & Sillah, Abdulai & Tamuke, Edmund, 2018. "Modelling Monthly Headline Consumer Price Index (HCPI) through Seasonal Box-Jenkins Methodology," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 51-56.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:espost:175834
    DOI: 10.18483/ijSci.1479
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/175834/1/SSRN-id3128057.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.18483/ijSci.1479?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ette Harrison Etuk & Imoh Udo Moffat & Benjamin Ele Chims, 2013. "Modelling Monthly Rainfall Data of Port Harcourt, Nigeria by Seasonal Box-Jenkins Methods," International Journal of Sciences, Office ijSciences, vol. 2(07), pages 60-67, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jackson Emerson Abraham, 2017. "Theoretical and Methodological Context of (Post)-Modern Econometrics and Competing Philosophical Discourses for Policy Prescription," Journal of Heterodox Economics, Sciendo, vol. 4(2), pages 119-129, December.
    2. Jackson, Emerson Abraham & Tamuke, Edmund, 2019. "Predicting disaggregated tourist arrivals in Sierra Leone using ARIMA model," MPRA Paper 96845, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Dec 2019.
    3. Emerson Abraham JACKSON & Mohamed JABBİE & Edmund TAMUKE & Augustine NGOMBU, 2020. "Adoption of Inflation Targeting in Sierra Leone: An Empirical Discourse," Journal of Economic Policy Researches, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 7(2), pages 21-50, July.
    4. Jackson, Emerson Abraham & Tamuke, Edmund, 2018. "Probability Forecast Using Fan Chart Analysis: A case of the Sierra Leone Economy," MPRA Paper 88853, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 04 Sep 2018.
    5. Jackson, Emerson Abraham, 2020. "Understanding SLL / US$ exchange rate dynamics in Sierra Leone using Box-Jenkins ARIMA approach," MPRA Paper 97965, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 03 Jan 2020.
    6. Jackson, Emerson Abraham, 2020. "Importance of the Public Service in Achieving the UN SDGs," MPRA Paper 101806, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 02 Jun 2020.
    7. EMERSON Abraham Jackson, 2018. "Comparison Between Static And Dynamic Forecast In Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average For Seasonally Adjusted Headline Consumer Price Index," Revista Economica, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 70(1), pages 53-65, August.
    8. JACKSON Emerson Abraham & TAMUKE Edmund & JABBIE Mohamed, 2019. "Disaggregated Short-Term Inflation Forecast (Stif) For Monetary Policy Decision In Sierra Leone," Revista Economica, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 71(3), pages 31-53, November.
    9. Jackson, Emerson Abraham, 2018. "On the question of the relevance of Economics as a science: Postmodern filosofia critique," MPRA Paper 86185, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 13 Apr 2018.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. EMERSON Abraham Jackson, 2018. "Comparison Between Static And Dynamic Forecast In Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average For Seasonally Adjusted Headline Consumer Price Index," Revista Economica, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 70(1), pages 53-65, August.
    2. Jackson, Emerson Abraham, 2018. "On the question of the relevance of Economics as a science: Postmodern filosofia critique," MPRA Paper 86185, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 13 Apr 2018.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ARIMA Model; Time Series; HCPI; Sierra Leone;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:espost:175834. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/zbwkide.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.